Tag: "unemployment"

Keynesian Economics Can’t Get Us Out of this Jam

Keynesian policy conclusions, such as the wisdom of additional stimulus geared to money transfers, should come down to empirical evidence. And there is zero evidence that deficit-financed transfers raise GDP and employment—not to mention evidence for a multiplier of two.

Ironically, the administration created one informative data point by dramatically raising unemployment insurance eligibility to 99 weeks in 2009—a much bigger expansion than in previous recessions. Interestingly, the fraction of the unemployed who are long term (more than 26 weeks) has jumped since 2009—to over 44% today, whereas the previous peak had been only 26% during the 1982-83 recession. This pattern suggests that the dramatically longer unemployment-insurance eligibility period adversely affected the labor market.

Full Robert J. Barro editorial worth reading.

Aug 25, 2011 | 6 comments | by

Is Health Insurance the Cause of High Unemployment?

My speculation: The high and rising cost of health insurance, combined with health insurance fairness norms, is a major reason why employment is recovering so slowly.  If I’m right, we’ve got a serious problem with no easy solution.  As always, though, we should start with the low-hanging fruit: Don’t mandate coverage, don’t punish firms for trying to control costs, and above all, don’t amplify workers’ dysfunctional beliefs about fairness with demagoguery. Sigh.

Full Bryan Caplan post here.

Aug 23, 2011 | 7 comments | by

Headlines I Wish I Hadn’t Seen

More than 120 hospitals given top marks by patients for providing excellent care also have high death rates for heart attack, heart failure or pneumonia.

An analysis of data from six European countries suggests that mammography screening has had no effect on breast cancer mortality.

By one survey, fewer people are working now than were working ­two years ago.

Aug 08, 2011 | 5 comments | by

Is ObamaCare Costing Jobs?

This is from the Heritage Foundation:

Contrary view below the fold.

Read More » »

Jul 26, 2011 | 6 comments | by

Unemployment Leads to Less Healthy Eating

[A] higher risk of unemployment is associated with reduced consumption of fruits and vegetables and increased consumption of “unhealthy” foods such as snacks and fast food. In addition to estimation of the average population effect, heterogeneous responses are also identified …. Among individuals predicted to be at highest risk of being unemployed, a one percentage point increase in the resident state’s unemployment rate is associated with a 2-8% reduction in the consumption of fruits and vegetables.

Full NBER working paper on the business cycle of eating habits.

Feb 14, 2011 | 5 comments | by

Memo to The New Republic: It Doesn’t Pay to Work

At least it doesn’t pay very much. The New Republic has an over-the-top critique of a chart posted at National Review and elsewhere, showing that families don’t gain very much extra take-home pay from working more and earning more. TNR claims the chart “epitomizes conservative intellectual dishonesty.” But this is a classic case of not being able to see the forest for the trees.

Here is the latest, most authoritative estimate of what families lose in taxes and transfer benefits when they earn an extra dollar of income from our own study by Larry Kotlikoff  (Boston University and TNR contributor), Jagadeesh Gokhale (Cato) and Alexi Sluchynsky:

Note:  Assumes a two-earner couple, with two children, who take advantage of a wide array of tax avoidance opportunities, including the mortgage interest deduction, the earned-income tax credit, and the child tax credit. When qualified, the couple also receives the full array of transfer benefits, including Food Stamps and Medicaid.

A family whose earnings are in the range of $20,000 to $30,000 gains almost nothing (and may even lose income) if the move is from part-time to full-time labor and gets to keep as little as 20 cents of every dollar if the shift is from non-work to work.

Feb 10, 2011 | 10 comments | by

Scary Budget Numbers: Why the Truth is Even Worse

CBO is required to use current law as the basis for its estimates—to assume, for example, that all the Bush tax cuts will expire at the end of 2012, that Medicare payments to physicians will be cut sharply, and that the alternative minimum tax will be allowed to affect millions more Americans. Using these assumptions, taxes as a share of GDP would be allowed to increase by five percentage points by 2014 and would keep on rising thereafter, we’d have a cumulative deficit of about $7 trillion dollars over the next decade, and debt held by the public would increase from 62 percent to 77 percent of GDP. Using more politically realistic assumptions, the cumulative deficit would be about $12 trillion, and debt held by the public would reach 97 percent of GDP, the highest level since 1946 (when it was headed down, not up).

Full article on the latest budget numbers.

Feb 09, 2011 | 4 comments | by

Gallop’s Latest Unemployment Numbers, Virginia Ironside Advocates Pillow Smothering for Disabled Children, and Bloomberg Says No More Welfare Sodas

Gallop: Actual unemployment is 10.0%. Underemployment is 18.8%

UK pundit advocates pillow smothering disabled children.

Mayor Bloomberg to welfare mothers: no more sodas. How about restricting them to only fruits, veggies and tofu?

Oct 08, 2010 | 12 comments | by

72,000 Stimulus Checks Went to Dead People, Economy Has Been Sinking Since April of 2006, and Greenspan on Fear Produced by Bad Government Policies

Arnold Kling: labor capacity utilization is at its lowest level since the recession began. [This implies] the economy has been sinking since April of 2006 and continues to sink, with the decline only interrupted by temporary Census Bureau hiring earlier this year.

Greenspan: fear, produced by bad government policies is undermining the recovery. Same point made by yours truly here.

Doctors: Smartphones with medical apps are not enough; you also need us.  “There’s never a time where I would base a clinical decision on solely what I find on one of these apps.”

Oct 08, 2010 | 4 comments | by

One of Every Five Men 25 to 54 Isn’t Working

Even more alarming, the jobs that many of these men, or those like them, once had in construction, factories and offices aren’t coming back. “A good guess…is that when the economy recovers five years from now, one in six men who are 25 to 54 will not be working,” Lawrence Summers, the president’s economic adviser, said the other day.

May 07, 2010 | 4 comments | by
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