Why People Aren’t Working

Casey Mulligan sorts it out:

In other words, two of the six percentage points of the current depression of [average hours worked] is a consequence of population aging between 2007 and 2013…

But aaging-workforce-smaller1ging is not the only change affecting labor supply. Marginal tax rates have increased five percentage points since 2007 and will increase another five percentage points over the next 15 months, a trend attributed especially to expansions in health and other safety net programs. By 2015, a typical worker will keep only half of the value created by employment, compared with 60 percent kept before the recession.

Economists have traditionally recognized that a 17 percent reduction in the reward to working (from keeping 60 to keeping 50) would significantly contract the labor market, and do so at least as much as the 2 percent that the aging of the baby boom does. Yet this time many economists [think Paul Krugman] are reluctant to acknowledge marginal tax rate increases, even though marginal tax rates affect labor supply in many of the same ways that aging does.

Comments (15)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. Adam says:

    Our society’s inclination toward contraception hurts our society both in cultural and economic terms.

  2. Jackson says:

    “Marginal tax rates have increased five percentage points since 2007”

    They tax us so much we hardly notice the change.

  3. Billy says:

    “Marginal tax rates have increased five percentage points since 2007 and will increase another five percentage points over the next 15 months”

    Why can’t I just keep my money?

  4. Wilbur says:

    “Paul Krugman”

    Why does anyone pay attention to that hack?