What’s The Worst Case Scenario?
Suppose that only two million people enroll through the exchanges, instead of the projected seven million. Seth Chandler dissects the results:
Insurance sold through Exchanges without medical underwriting — a central promise of the Affordable Care Act — is likely to implode in a significant number of states by 2015 while limping along in several others but providing little net desired decrease in the number of people without quality health insurance.
So the worst case scenario is the near total collapse of the American health system?
Basically, yes.
Essentially.
Not the most optimistic outlook. Then again, the healthcare scene is a grim scene.
As is most of American governance.
Get ready to treat your healthcare like thunderdome.
I’m already preparing my petition for an X-Ray to the Ayatollah-of-Rock-n-Roll’a.
Are we still talking healthcare…?
“…limping along in several others…”
The lucky ones get to limp, the rest just die.
I can’t imagine how any state hopes to succeed. The smaller states are being crushed because of a lack of interest from providers and big states simply don’t have the capacity to organize such an undertaking.
At least it’s philosophically sound in recognizing death as the worst outcome.
You can be sure that the 2 million are the sickliest 2 million though. Not many healthy folks willing to subsidize an overpriced tier of insurance.
I still think 2 million is too low- I have long thought 4 million was the number that would be hit, but I have recently thought maybe it was more likely to be under 4 million just based on the states whose exchanges are actually working. If I turn out about right, I don’t think you will see any reduction in subsidies in the long run- ACA will end up insuring about half the number predicted (ignoring Medicaid expansion) at what I think will ultimately be twice the cost. However, if the total of all the exchanges is still under 500,000 by the end of this month, 2 million is looking more and more likely, but I still don’t think the subsidies will 2/7 of that predicted- I just about guarantee the subsidy rate will be quite a bit higher than expected.