Surprising Fact of the Day
From Joshua Goldstein in Foreign Policy. via Alex Tabarrok:
In fact, the last decade has seen fewer war deaths than any decade in the past 100 years…If the world feels like a more violent place than it actually is, that’s because there’s more information about wars — not more wars themselves.
I read this article in Foreign Affairs. It’s hard to believe, especially since the proliferation of AK-47s and rock-propelled grenades in the hands of every two-bit bandit across the world.
That’s something I didn’t know.
Perhaps in this case, perception is not reality.
If I had to make a prediction as to what conflicts we will see between now and 2020, I would list a few. Some will undoubtedly have U.S. involvement, some will be low casualty, others with relatively high casualties.
Here is my list…..the higher on the list, the more likely it is that the conflict will occur.
1. Sudan VS South Sudan – this one could get really bloody if there is not foreign intervention. I see at least some kind of U.S. involvement on a humanitarian level.
2. Russia-Georgia redux – I see this spilling over into other countries in the Caucasus this time.
3. Kosovo – Islamic radicalism is growing here and I think there is going to be sectarian fighting here again.
4. Iran, Israel, Lebanon, U.S. – Could be an incredibly costly war for the U.S. The question is whether or not Israel will strike first (if we allow them too). But even if Israel does strike the nuclear facilities, the Russians will be right there waiting to rebuild everything. I think that the Russians they will do everything short of donating a few nuclear weapons to Iran following a debilitating strike by Israel. The real question is, can the people of Iran overthrow the regime before it’s too late.
5. North Korea, Syria, and others – I’m still thinking about these.
There a new article out that looks at conflicts and the weather pattern, El Nino. Apparently there is a high degree of correlation between, hot weather, failing crops and bad behavior.
Very interesting post.
@ Devon
There is certainly a high degree of correlation between ambient temperature and hostility in my household! I don’t see how it wouldn’t also apply to the rest of humanity.