Will Enough Young People Sign Up?
The Obama administration hopes that 40% of enrollees in the new health care exchanges will be between the ages of 18 and 34. The worst outcome would be 40% enrollment of older people (age 55 to 64). According to The New York Times, that unfortunate outcome is occurring in many states. Here are the counts in states reporting so far:
- The ratio of older enrollees to younger ones is 2 to 1 in Colorado, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Washington, and Minnesota.
- The ratio of old to young is 1½ to 1 in California and Kentucky.
- Only in Maryland and Massachusetts do the number of young exceed the number of older enrollees.
The ratio of 2 older enrollees for 1 younger one does not give the real flavor of the age skew in Colorado, where as of November 30, 43 percent of enrollees were over age 55, and 61 percent were over age 45. Just 17 percent are aged 18 to 34.
No one knows the health status of exchange enrollees. Connect for Health Colorado, one of the more successful state exchanges, says that 15,074 people had enrolled as of December 9. The problem is that this is only 177 more Coloradans than were enrolled in the state and federal plans for the uninsurable, plans that are ending soon.
It’s fine to follow the ages of people who enroll in Obamacare.
But age is not the most significant marker for health status. Diagnosis is.
Obamacare asks for applicants’ ages but only the applicants themselves have good knowledge of their actual healths status.
Fact is, less-healthy people will be drawn to Obamacare much more strongly than the healthy, regardless of age.
Exactly. Age is only a part of the problem; it serves as an indicator of higher expected spending.
Luckily, ObamaCare exchanges accept everyone regardless of existing conditions…
MA is also very arguably a completely different beast due to the existing impact of RomneyCare.
“The ratio of 2 older enrollees for 1 younger one does not give the real flavor of the age skew in Colorado, where as of November 30, 43 percent of enrollees were over age 55, and 61 percent were over age 45.”
Not looking so good for Obamacare…
“The Obama administration hopes that 40% of enrollees in the new health care exchanges will be between the ages of 18 and 34.” That’s a joke.
A few studies show that a healthy, young person with few expected health care costs can actually pay the mandate’s fee and not purchase health insurance to save.
It’s almost certainly going to be elderly folks with ongoing health conditions that are attracted to the exchange.
The worst outcome is basically already upon us judging by the recent trends.
“The problem is that this is only 177 more Coloradans than were enrolled in the state and federal plans for the uninsurable, plans that are ending soon.” Very deceptive considering that this is simply a transfer of the highest-cost patients. Completely redistribution of wealth.
There is literally zero chance of hitting that goal for people 18-34 years of age. If that goal was the requirement for stability in the exchange plans, then the exchange plans are doomed unless HHS can forever shovel money to the insurers that doesn’t come from the insurers themselves.