It will most likely be caused by a virus, not by a bacterium or some other kind of bug. More specifically, we should expect an RNA virus (specifically, one that bears its genome as a single molecular strand), as distinct from a DNA virus (carrying its info on the reliable double helix, less prone to mutation, therefore less variable and adaptable). Finally, this RNA virus will almost certainly be zoonotic — a pathogen that emerges from some nonhuman animal to infect, and spread among, human beings.
More on the Next Big One in the NYT.
Scary…to say the least!
What happens when someone modifies an existing organism, weaponizing its genome?
Places where different species of animals are raised in very close proximity — using the feces of one to feed another — is a likely place for this to emerge.
This is really funny to me, as the movie I Am Legend was on TV last night. In it, they create a cure for cancer by genetically reengineering the measles virus. It mutates, goes airborne, and things get out of control. Makes for a good movie, but I could also see it as a real-world possibility.
I agree with Joe, don’t underestimate the human potential.
Have to agree with Joe as well. Lloyd Dumas wrote a book called “The Technology Trap,” which talks a lot about this. Bioterrorism is supposed to be the next big thing.
I definitely see how this could be a possibility especially given the swine and bird flus.
We beat the last great pandemics, we can beat the next one. The only question is what the human cost will be.
I wasn’t aware SARS was so close.
“SARS is a zoonosis that emerged from a Chinese bat, fanned out of Hong Kong to the wider world, threatened to be the Next Big One, and then was stopped — barely — by fast and excellent medical science.”