More Than One in Five Obamacare Enrollees From 2014 Have Not Re-Enrolled
Avalere Health has released a new analysis of exchange enrollment, emphasizing that states with the federal Obamacare exchange (healthcare.gov) retained more 2014 Obamacare beneficiaries than states with their own exchanges:
Federally-facilitated exchange states reenrolled 78 percent of their 2014 enrollees in 2015, on average. In state-run exchange states , that percentage drops to 69 percent of 2014 enrollees. California, the state with the highest enrollment in 2014, only retained 65 percent of their 2014 enrollees.
I am not convinced that the state versus federal characteristic is a determining factor (and neither is Avalere). What is interesting is that, overall, more than one in five 2014 Obamacare beneficiaries have not yet renewed in 2015.
This is the problem of increasing churn which we have discussed at this blog. People are likely churning – within the year – between Obamacare, Medicaid, and employer-based coverage at a higher rate than before Obamacare. This surely jeopardizes continuity of care.
Has Obamacare reached peak enrollment? With 20% falling off the rolls yearly, will there be enough new patients to replace those churned out of the system? With only 11.4 million enrolled, 60% of whom are financially incentivized to join and after 2 years of mass enrollment techniques – it doesn’t seem there will be nearly enough enrollees to make Obamacare a financially viable strategy. It will become the Post Office of healthcare – sure it insures 11 million people but at what cost. Unless they move more people off Mediciad and onto obamacare or force people off their current Healh insurance and onto Obamacare, I can’t see how or why enrollment (especially the young and healthy) will increase. And that becomes the insurance financial death spiral that has been mentioned.
Oh Joe, that’s a minor detail.
Plus there is the pesky King. vs. Burwell lawsuit……