Tag: "economic data"

CPI: Flat Medical Prices Lower Than Inflation

blsThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent in October. Remarkably, medical prices were flat overall. This is the second month in a row we have enjoyed medical price relief. Even prescription drugs rose by only 0.2 percent, half the rate of headline CPI, while prices of non-prescription drugs dropped significantly. Even the price of health insurance dropped a smidgeon!

Prices for inpatient hospital services rose the most, by 0.6 percent. As noted in my discussion of the Producer Price Index, this bears closer watching as President-elect Trump promises more spending on infrastructure, including hospitals.

Over the last 12 months, however, medical prices have increased three times faster than non-medical prices: 1.4 percent versus 4.3 percent. Price changes for medical care contributed 22 percent of the overall increase in CPI.

Many observers of medical prices decline to differentiate between nominal and real inflation. Because CPI is has been low until recently, even relatively moderate nominal price hikes for medical care are actually substantial real price hikes. More than six years after the Affordable Care Act was passed, consumers have not seen relief from high medical prices, which have increased over twice as much as the CPI less medical care since March 2010, the month President Obama signed the law.

(See Figure I and Table I below the fold.)

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Nov 19, 2016 | Leave a Comment | by

PPI: Health Prices Tame, Inflation Flat

BLSOctober’s Producer Price Index was flat. However, prices for most health goods and services grew slowly, if at all. Seven of the 15 price indices for health goods and services declined. The major exception was prices for dental care, which increased 1.5 percent. Dental care is dominated neither by government nor private insurance, so dental price increases are not explained by NCPA’s usual theory of health inflation. I addressed dental price increases in a previous article.

Prices of pharmaceutical preparations for final demand increased 0.4 percent, but that was in line with all goods for final demand. Prices for construction of both health facilities and other buildings increased 0.7 percent. This bears closer watching as President-elect Trump promises more spending on infrastructure, including hospitals.

Prices of health goods for intermediate demand, especially medicinal and botanical chemicals, and biological products, actually dropped. Perhaps this will flow through to prices of pharmaceutical products but that has not previously been the case.

Over the last twelve months, prices of health goods and services have increased faster than overall PPI, which grew 0.8 percent. The tables are turned: 12 of 15 health categories experienced larger price increases than PPI did. Pharmaceutical preparations continue to stand out dramatically, having grown 8.4 percent.

(See Table I below the fold.)

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Nov 17, 2016 | 1 comment | by

Health Jobs Grew Twice As Fast As Non-Health Jobs in October

BLSThis morning’s jobs report maintained the trend of high growth in health services, with those jobs growing twice as fast as non-health jobs (0.21 percent versus 0.10 percent). With 31,000 jobs added, health services accounted for almost one fifth of 161,000 new jobs.

The disproportionately high share of job growth in health services is a deliberate outcome of Obamacare. While this trend persists, it will become increasingly hard to carry out reforms that will improve productivity in the delivery of care.

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Nov 04, 2016 | 5 comments | by

GDP: Tame Health Spending Growth in Strong Third Quarter

BEAFor those (like me) concerned about how much health spending continues to increase after Obamacare, today’s flash report of third quarter Gross Domestic Product brings good news. Of course, the flash GDP report is subject to significant revision. Nevertheless, it is good to have a breather from the second quarter, which was dominated by growth in health services spending.

Overall, real GPD increased 2.9 percent on the quarter, while health services spending increased only 2.3 percent, and contributed only 9 percent of real GDP growth. Growth in health services spending was also in line with other services spending and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Also, the annualized change in the health services price index increased by 1.6 percent, very close to overall GDP.

(See Table I below the fold.)

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Oct 28, 2016 | 2 comments | by

CPI: Medical Care Prices Rose Less Than Non-Medical Prices in September

BLSThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent in September. Remarkably, medical prices rose a smidgen less, at 0.2 percent. This is a big breather from August, when increases in medical prices were dramatic. Nevertheless, both prescription and non-prescription drugs increased prices by 0.8 percent. Prices for medical equipment and supplies dropped by almost as much, shrinking 0.7 percent.

Over the last 12 months, however, medical prices have increased four times faster than non-medical prices: 1.2 percent versus 4.9 percent. Price changes for medical care comprise 27 percent of the overall increase in CPI.

Many observers of medical prices decline to differentiate between nominal and real inflation. Because CPI is flat, even relatively moderate nominal price hikes for medical care are actually substantial real price hikes. More than six years after the Affordable Care Act was passed, consumers are seeing no relief from high medical prices, which have increased over twice as much as the CPI less medical care since March 2010, the month President Obama signed the law.

(See Figure I and Table I below the fold.)

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Oct 18, 2016 | 1 comment | by

PPI: Health Prices (Except Pharmaceuticals) Stay Tame As Other Prices Rise

BLSSeptember’s Producer Price Index rose 0.3 percent, a significant pick up. However, prices for most health goods and services grew slowly, if at all. Eleven of the 15 prices for health goods and services reported grew slower than the headline PPI. The major exception was prices for pharmaceutical preparations, which increased 1.2 percent, resuming a trend which I had hoped was breaking down. Further, prices of medicinal and botanical chemicals dropped 0.7 percent. So, price increases for pharmaceutical preparations are not coming from the ingredients.

However, over the last twelve months, prices of health goods and services have increased faster than overall PPI, which grew 0.7 percent. The tables are turned: 11 of 15 health categories experienced larger price increases than PPI did. Pharmaceutical preparations continue to stand out dramatically, having grown 8.1 percent. Nursing homes, for which prices rose 2.4 percent, might replace drug makers as the whipping boy for high health prices, but they have a long way to go.

(See Table I below the fold.)

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Oct 14, 2016 | 2 comments | by

Health Jobs Grew Twice As Fast As Non-Health Jobs In September

BLSThis morning’s jobs report was a return to normal, with jobs in health services growing twice as fast as non-health jobs (0.21 percent versus 0.10 percent). With 33,000 jobs added, health services accounted for one fifth 156,000 jobs added. Ambulatory sites (with the exception of labs) added jobs at more than double the rate of hospitals. Nursing and most other residential care facilities were flat (Table I).

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Oct 07, 2016 | 1 comment | by

Health Facilities Construction Growth Up Amidst General Decline in August

Census2Construction of health facilities significantly outpaced other construction in August. Overall, health facilities construction starts increased 1.2 percent in August, versus a drop of 0.8 percent for other construction. Further, both private and public health facilities construction grew.

Construction of private health facilities grew 0.6 percent, versus a drop of 0.4 percent for other private construction. Construction of public health facilities increased a whopping 3.6 percent, versus a drop of 2.2 percent for other public construction. Is this what they mean by “infrastructure” spending – broken bridges and roads, while more VA and county hospitals spring up?

See Table I Below the fold:

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Oct 03, 2016 | Leave a Comment | by

GDP: Health Services Grew Almost 12 Times Faster Than Non-Health GDP

BEAThe media noted today’s third estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product was revised upward from the second estimate. It was a sharply revised estimate of health spending that led to the higher overall estimate. While the estimate of GDP was revised up by $12.9 billion, the estimate of health services spending was revised up by $16.2 billion. Spending on services other than health services was revised down.

In real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, services grew 2.9 percent (annualized, seasonally adjusted) from the first quarter. As a large component of services, health services grew 7.1 percent.  While real GDP growth was 1.4 percent, once health services is stripped out, non-health GDP grew just 0.6 percent.

See Table I below the fold:

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Sep 29, 2016 | 3 comments | by

CPI: Medical Care Prices Rose 10 Times More Than Non-Medical Prices in August

BLSThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in August. Medical prices, however, continued their upward march, increasing by one full percent – 10 times more than non-medical consumer goods and services. If prices for medical care had been flat, the CPI would have risen by just 0.1 percent. Hospital services, prescription drugs, and health insurance stand out even within medical care. Price increases for medical care have contributed 42 percent of the overall CPI increase.

Over the last twelve months, prices for medical care have increased seven times faster than prices for non-medical items in the CPI. Price increases for medical care have contributed 36 percent of the overall CPI increase.

Many observers of medical prices decline to differentiate between nominal and real inflation. Because CPI is flat, even relatively moderate nominal price hikes for medical care are actually substantial real price hikes. More than six years after the Affordable Care Act was passed, consumers are seeing no relief from high medical prices, which have increased over twice as much as the CPI less medical care since March 2010, the month President Obama signed the law.

(See Figure I and Table I below the fold):

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Sep 16, 2016 | 3 comments | by
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