FDA Interest vs Public Interest
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) self-interest has caused soaring risk aversion, escalating development costs and fewer new products available to consumers, says Henry I. Miller, a fellow with the Hoover Institution. A regulator can err by permitting something bad to happen (approving a harmful product, a Type I error) or by preventing something good from becoming available (not approving a beneficial product, a Type II error). Both outcomes are bad for the public, but the consequences for the regulator are very different.
- Type I errors are highly visible, causing the regulators to be attacked by the media and patient groups and to be investigated by Congress.
- Type II errors are usually nonevents and elicit little attention, let alone outrage.
Bottom line: Type II errors are more likely.
Consider the FDA’s approval in 1976 of the swine flu vaccine. That approval is generally perceived to have been a Type I error because, although the vaccine was effective at preventing influenza, it had a major side effect that was unknown at the time of approval. The result of the side effect was 532 cases of paralysis, including 32 deaths, from Guillain-Barré syndrome.
Type II errors in the form of excessive governmental requirements and unreasonable decisions can delay commercialization of a new product, lessen competition to produce it and inflate its ultimate price, says Miller.
- Consider the greater than three-year delay in the approval of misoprostol, a drug for the treatment of gastric bleeding, a delay that is estimated to have cost between 8,000 and 15,000 lives per year.
- Or the lag in the approval of streptokinase for the treatment of occluded coronary arteries, which may have caused the loss of more than 10,000 lives per year.
The appropriate ratio of deaths from Type I errors to deaths from Type II errors should be one in which the number of deaths caused by each error is equal.
Furthermore, a similar calculus should apply to whether a drug, that has dangerous side effects, should be allowed to stay on the market (free of predatory litigation).
I doubt this type of analysis exists but I would expect the ratio of deaths from Type II errors is 10 to 20 times higher than deaths from Type I errors.
FDA acts in it’s own self interest. I’m supposed to be surprised at that?
Bruce, what is not obvious is how the FDA responds to Type I and Type II errors.
Lawyers sue for Type I, not Type II. If you are going to deregulate testing of new drugs, you need recourse for some remedy.
Steve