Less Smoking vs. More Obesity: Is It a Wash?

We find that both changes in smoking and in obesity are expected to have large effects on mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.92 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.26 years expected by 2040.

Source: NBER paper.

Comments (7)

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  1. Lucy Hender says:

    Like they say…”you can’t have one’s cake and eat it too.”

    It’s hard to believe that by wanting to quit such a harmful addiction, like smoking, you could actually be worst off than if you actually continued doing it. I’ve seen people struggle with this several times, and the one thing I hear the most is how depressed they get after quitting smoking for a while…which usually has even more negative effects on them, such as obesity like this study shows.

    Here I found a very similar study I thought would be interesting to take a look at. With the increasing number of obesity cases nationwide, I think the need is now bigger than ever for everyone to know more about it http://www.nber.org/papers/w17423.pdf

  2. Robert says:

    Quit smoking, start exercising more.

    Problem solved.

  3. August says:

    But healthcare costs are still rising. Depressing right?

  4. Hoover says:

    Isn’t exercise a treatment for depression as well?

  5. Greg Scandlen says:

    Nobody agrees with me, but I maintain that the drop in smoking has lead to the rise in obesity. People have oral fixations that will be filled one way or another

  6. Ender says:

    There are many benefits to excercising. Many people even get “addicted” to excercising. The individual competetive nature of excercise, leads to people striving to push themselves further in order to reach their goals. I know it dosent appeal to everyone, but if people are able to replace smoking with another addiction, it might extend their life.

  7. Alex says:

    But hey, life expectancy is still going up!