Would Abolishing ObamaCare Increase the Deficit?

In a letter to John Boehner last week, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that abolishing the Affordable Care Act would increase the deficit by $109 billion over the next ten years. Is this estimate credible? The CBO is required to assume the ACA is implemented the way the law is written. But the law requires $523 billion in cuts to Medicare. These are cuts that the Office of the Medicare actuaries say will cause one in seven hospitals to close by the end of the decade and will keep seniors from having reasonable access to physicians. This outcome is so unbelievable that the CBO has published an “alternative report” showing much higher Medicare spending and the Medicare Actuaries Office not only publishes an “alternative report,” they are now including the alternative report in theĀ official report.

Comments (9)

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  1. Alex says:

    This only serves to create uncertainty.

    Thanks John.

  2. Bruce says:

    It’s going to increase the deficit.

  3. Otis says:

    It will only increase the deficit because bureaucrats have made the budget process as confusing and untransparent as possible.

  4. Kyle says:

    How does the CBO retain any sort of bipartisan credibility at this point?

  5. david says:

    @Kyle, you kidding me? They’re THE most bipartisan, unbiased group of economists.

  6. Kyle says:

    The CBO does employ external analysts. Unfortunately they still operate only on figures presented to them by administrative services, which can be convoluted or inaccurate for a variety of reasons.

    I was questioning the fact that they are supposed to be bipartisan, but proposing alternative reports suggests divergence. Is it wrong to wonder if it’s politically motivated?

  7. david says:

    I don’t know where JCG is getting his links. The alternative reports are being released by HHS or their departments, not the CBO.

  8. Linda Gorman says:

    People still believe that the federal government, or any government for that matter, can accurately estimate future health program expenditures?

    Perhaps it is time to review the 2009 Joint Economic Committee report reviewing the history of health cost estimates.

    For starters, in 1967 the feds estimated that Medicare would cost $12 billion by 1990. The actual cost was $67 billion. For Part A.

    Available at: http://www.jec.senate.gov/republicans/public/?a=Files.Serve&File_id=5802c84c-e821-4ab3-baeb-793f3ae2e036

  9. Kyle says:

    I believe he meant the alternative and baseline scenarios published by the CBO, and included links to the HHS reports he referenced.