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Dynamic Scoring Drops Obamacare Repeal Cost

Congressional Budget Office Director Keith Hall told House Budget Committee members Wednesday (June 3) that dynamic scoring, which predicts how policies change behaviors that in turn affect the economy, would likely reduce the cost of repealing the Affordable Care Act.

Republicans and Democrats sparred at the hearing over how CBO’s new interest in so-called dynamic scoring should be applied to health care proposals. Hall, who recently became CBO director, told Budget Committee members that his office plans to spend more resources looking at dynamic scoring and “analyzing the economic effects of health care proposals,” especially if the Obama administration loses King v. Burwell at the Supreme Court. (John Wilkerson, “CBO Director Says Dynamic Scoring Would Lower Cost Of ACA Repeal,” Inside Healthcare Policy, June 3, 2015)

Among other things, Mr. Hall is surely referring to two issues: The taxes on businesses (e.g. medical device excise tax, “Cadillac” tax on employer benefits, employer mandate to offer government-compliant benefits) and the taxes on individuals that cause them to work less (2.5 million fewer jobs, according to CBO).

CBO’s new commitment to dynamic scoring is good news. NCPA has a Tax Analysis Center that will bring dynamic scoring to our analysis of various reforms, including health reform