In 1965, the computer expert Gordon Moore published his famous little graph showing that the number of “components per integrated function” on a silicon chip — a measure of computing power — seemed to be doubling every year and a half. He had only five data points, but Moore’s Law has settled into an almost iron rule of innovation. Why is it so regular?
The technology guru Ray Kurzweil recently pointed out that a version of Moore’s Law has been true since the early years of the 20th century. That is to say, before the integrated circuit even existed, the four previous technologies — electromechanical, relay, vacuum tube and transistor—had all improved along the very same trajectory: The computing power that $1,000 buys has doubled every two years for a century.
Matt Ridley’s entire article here.
What a great post! It goes to show how far ideas and innovative minds can go, yet unconstitutional policies seem to be so detrimental that all they do is limit progress to unexpected levels.
That’s really neat — it’s awesome to see how new innovations drive down costs and allow tech to be more accessible to everyone!
We take for granted that innovations will occur that make each generation’s standard of living will be much better than the past. Yet, for thousands of years, innovation took place at glacial pace. One generation lived pretty much as the previous generation. It might take several generations to see much of a difference.
Technology is the key to securing our future.
@Jackson – I agree. It needs a bigger place in education.
I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.
very interesting-“This is mainly reassuring, because bad policies can’t prevent improvement—but also depressing, because good policies can’t accelerate improvement” it seems technology grows at its own exponential pace regardless of what outside actors do
Recently the transistor density growth has plateaued, but the price has been falling to make up for it.
Plateaus aren’t much of an issue when put in the scope of a few decades. Before smartphones there were serious thermal density concerns.
I honestly wish that hadn’t changed.. They keep making this stuff smaller so I keep losing them and having to buy new ones.
Remember the 10mb hard disk?
http://www.jacanaent.com/Photos/DemotivPost/10MbHardDisk.jpg