Marriage Explained
This is Richard Posner, writing at the Becker-Posner Blog:
Marriage rates have declined steeply in the United States and other Western nations. The number of marriages in the United States in 1950, per one thousand population, was 11; it is now 7—and the number is much lower in Western European nations. Of Americans aged 25 to 44, 62 percent of women are married and 59 percent of men; 8 percent of women are cohabiting and 10 percent of men. Divorce is frequent; only two-thirds of American marriages last more than 10 years. Forty percent of children are born out of wedlock.
Explanation below the fold.
It is easier to explain the decline in marriage rates than to assess the significance of the decline for the health of the society. Decline in infant mortality and increase in job opportunities for women (and hence increased opportunity cost of motherhood) have reduced the demand for children and thereby raised the average age of marriage, which leads to a reduced number of marriages. And women, being abler to support themselves than in the past, are more picky about marriage, and that reduces the marriage rate. Moreover, with many more women working in the market than only in the household, the gains from specialization in marriage have fallen. In addition, both sexes have greater access to sex outside of marriage; marrying for sex is becoming a thing of the past as taboos against extramarital sex disappear. And legal changes have reduced the difference between marriage and close substitutes like cohabitation: no longer are children born out of wedlock subjected to disadvantages associated with “illegitimacy,” such as being denied rights of inheritance; and no-fault divorce has lowered the cost of divorce.
According to research done by Brad Wilcox at the University of Virginia, marriage has a long-lasting impact on society. There are always specific exceptions, but generally speaking, children raised in intact married families are more likely to attend college, are physically and emotionally healthier, are less likely to be physically or sexually abused, less likely to use drugs or alcohol and to commit delinquent behaviors, have a decreased risk of divorcing when they get married, are less likely to become pregnant/impregnate someone as a teenager, and are less likely to be raised in poverty.
Years ago Becker’s research (from the 1970s I believe) found women’s standard of living typically falls after a divorce, whereas men’s standard of living tends to rise – suggesting women were more dependant on men than men were on women.
Yet more recent research by others finds that women are adapting to the changing economy better than men; and are attending college at rates greater than men.
As women become more integrated in the workforce and boost their economic power, the opportunity cost of child rearing rises and the economic necessity to marry falls. As women bear fewer children (e.g. maybe only one), traditional family living arrangements with shared parenting become less important (at least in theory).
Traditionalists attribute the decline of marriage to moral decay. But changing socioeconomic conditions explain much of the decline of marriage.
Europe is a somewhat different story. The high tax rates, tight labor market and costly resources (especially housing) probably negatively impacts the fertility rate.
I’m curious: might the research suggesting that kids raised in stable two-parent families turn out better be a little biased?
Could it be that responsible people married because “that’s what you do”, and their stable children would have been raised in a similar fashion even if they had not been married?
It’s true that there economic/cultural reasons for getting married are no longer as big of a factor. But I think the bigger issue is one of self-actualization. More and more young people don’t feel the need to settle down when they’ve seen their parents and grandparents stay in unloving relationships because of the stigma of divorce. It’s much easier to go it alone than settle for someone who might make you miserable.
According to Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation, the average single mother in the US now receives nearly three dollars in government benefits for every dollar she pays in taxes. The new health care legislation increases the benefit, and, as previously explained on this blog, has marginal tax rates that exceed 100% for some low income earners.
This is an interesting economic analysis of something most people believe happens for noneconomic reasons.