Health Reform Bill Destroys Jobs, and Other Links
Does the health reform bill destroy jobs? 200 economists say yes.
How does the Congressional Budget Office magically convert $1 trillion in new spending into painless deficit reduction? “It’s all about budget gimmicks, deceptive accounting, and implausible assumptions used to create the false impression of fiscal discipline.”
“If the FDA deems saccharin safe enough for coffee, then the EPA should not treat it as hazardous waste.” That’s Barack Obama writing in the Wall Street Journal today.
Fact or PR? On the eve of the debate over repeal of health reform, an HHS report says as many as 129 million people have pre-existing conditions.
PR, just start with the first assumption, no employer or any other type of group coverage and go from there.
On the last question, it’s PR.
If 42% of the population has a pre-existing condition, there would be nobody left for the insurance companies to insure. Most of those people have health conditions so mild as to be underwritten for a small increase in premium (as they should be). Many work for employers that offer coverage (which is always guaranteed issue in the employer market). In other words, the proportion of people who truly uninsurable because of pre-existing condition is not 49% of the non-elderly public. It’s probably closer to 2%.
The Obama editorial was interesting. Maybe he is tacking to the center the way Bill Clinton did after the 1994 elections.
Holtz-Eakins has become such a hack. The CBO never double counted.
Steve
Between 20 and 50 percent seems reasonable, following their criteria. The lower number seems about right for the number of people who are actually uninsurable in the individual market, with the higher number to include people who are insurable but at up to double the base rate.
But if you exclude the 70 percent of nonelderly who get coverage from work, and another 5 or 10 who couldn’t afford to buy their own in any case, then 20 percent of 20 percent would leave around 4 percent who could afford coverage but don’t qualify for health reasons. That’s only a factor of two off of Devon’s estimate.
Of course if the employer insurance market dies because e.g. the tax incentive is revoked, then we’re back up to 20 percent.