(A version of this Health Alert was published by Forbes.)

Since the election, there has been a lot of sturm und drang around what the alternative to Obamacare will look like. It looks like we can be highly confident the Republican-majority Congress will repeal Obamacare very quickly starting in January. However, there is some question about what exactly will be repealed.

Last year’s repeal bill, H.R. 3762, repealed Obamacare’s spending and taxes, but not its over regulation of health insurance. Further, Republican politicians have promised not only to repeal Obamacare, but replace it with a better payment system than existed previously. People’s primary concern about the previous system was that people in the individual market could be denied coverage for pre-existing conditions or charged higher premiums as a result of underwriting.

Politically, it would not be possible for Republicans to walk back from this commitment. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s November tracking poll:

Among those who want to see the ACA repealed, 38 percent (meaning 10 percent of the public overall) change their opinion after hearing the argument made by proponents that repealing the ACA would mean that insurance companies would be able to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.

Trump voters react similarly, with a larger share changing their opinion after hearing that repealing the ACA would mean that insurance companies would be able to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions (27 percent) than changing their opinion after hearing that more than 20 million Americans could lose their coverage (8 percent).

The economics of health insurance make this very difficult to achieve without some sort of mandate or penalty for not maintaining coverage, which is politically unpopular – and especially toxic to Republicans. This poses a challenge; and we all know Republican politicians have promised to solve this for six years without result. Fortunately, we also have recent evidence that Republicans can lead and succeed on complex health reform legislation. Continue reading Obama Just Partially Repealed Obamacare, Proving Republicans Can Succeed →

(A version of this Health Alert was published by Forbes.)

The recently announced 25 percent rise in Obamacare health insurance premiums has brought renewed attention to health policy. As this is my last column before Election Day, it is time to review how the presidential candidates would address the continuing challenge of skyrocketing health costs.

We should not kid ourselves that Obamacare’s failure is enough to cause the next President or Congress to act energetically to fix the problems Obamacare exacerbated. The interest groups which brought us Obamacare have cut bait and moved on. The health care sector – interests for which the $3.35 trillion spent on health care counts as revenue rather than cost – has bigger fish to fry.

Although insurers are losing money in Obamacare’s exchanges, they are far more concerned with employer-based group benefits, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid managed care than Obamacare exchanges. Obamacare exchanges cover fewer than 13 million people at any time during the year; and only about four million stick with Obamacare coverage throughout the year. Those poor souls comprise a powerless political constituency, unlike employers or seniors on Medicare. Continue reading Divided on Obamacare, Trump and Clinton Both Threaten Medical Innovation →